Earth recorded its hottest year ever in 2024, with such a big jump that the planet temporarily passed a major climate threshold, several weather monitoring agencies announced Friday.
Last year's global average temperature easily passed 2023's record heat and kept pushing even higher. It surpassed the long-term warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius since the late 1800s that was called for by the 2015 Paris climate pact, according to the European Commission's Copernicus Climate Service, the United Kingdom's Meteorology Office and Japan's weather agency.
The European team calculated 1.6 degrees Celsius of warming. Japan found 1.57 degrees Celsius and the British 1.53 degrees Celsius in releases of data coordinated to early Friday morning European time.
A woman cools herself with a fan June 26 in London.
"The primary reason for these record temperatures is the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere" from the burning of coal, oil and gas, said Samantha Burgess, strategic climate lead at Copernicus. "As greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, temperatures continue to increase, including in the ocean, sea levels continue to rise, and glaciers and ice sheets continue to melt."
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Last year eclipsed 2023's temperature in the European database by an eighth of a degree Celsius. That's an unusually large jump; until the last couple of super-hot years, global temperature records were exceeded only by hundredths of a degree, scientists said.
The last 10 years are the 10 hottest on record and are likely the hottest in 125,000 years, Burgess said.
July 10 was the hottest day recorded by humans, with the globe averaging 17.16 degrees Celsius (62.89 degrees Fahrenheit), Copernicus found.
By far the biggest contributor to record warming is the burning of fossil fuels, several scientists said. A temporary natural El Nino warming of the central Pacific added a small amount and an undersea volcanic eruption in 2022 ended up cooling the atmosphere because it put more reflecting particles in the atmosphere as well as water vapor, Burgess said.
A child holds an electric fan as they react to the heat July 8 during a visit to the Forbidden City in Beijing.
Alarm bells ringing
"This is a warning light going off on the Earth's dashboard that immediate attention is needed," said University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall Shepherd. "Hurricane Helene, floods in Spain and the weather whiplash fueling wildfires in California are symptoms of this unfortunate climate gear shift. We still have a few gears to go."
"Climate-change-related alarm bells have been ringing almost constantly, which may be causing the public to become numb to the urgency, like police sirens in New York City," Woodwell Climate Research Center scientist Jennifer Francis said. "In the case of the climate, though, the alarms are getting louder, and the emergencies are now way beyond just temperature."
There were 27 weather disasters in the United States that caused at least $1 billion in damage, just one fewer than the record set in 2023, according to NOAA. The U.S. cost of those disasters was $182.7 billion. Hurricane Helene was the costliest and deadliest of the year with at least 219 deaths and $79.6 billion in damage.
"In the 1980s, Americans experienced one billion-plus weather and climate disaster on average every four months," Texas Tech climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe said in an email about NOAA's inflation-adjusted figures. "Now, there's one every three weeks 鈥 and we already have the first of 2025 even though we're only 9 days into the year."
"The acceleration of global temperature increases means more damage to property and impacts on human health and the ecosystems we depend on," said University of Arizona water scientist Kathy Jacobs.
Firefighter Geo Mulongo, center, finishes his water while taking a break Sept. 6 during the Line Fire in Highland, Calif.
A major threshold
This is the first time any year passed the 1.5-degree threshold, except for a 2023 measurement by Berkeley Earth, which was originally funded by philanthropists who were skeptical of global warming.
Scientists were quick to point out that the 1.5 goal is for long-term warming, now defined as a 20-year average. Warming since pre-industrial times over the long term is now at 1.3 degrees Celsius.
"The 1.5 degree C threshold isn't just a number 鈥 it's a red flag. Surpassing it even for a single year shows how perilously close we are to breaching the limits set by the Paris Agreement," Northern Illinois University climate scientist Victor Gensini said in an email.
A 2018 massive United Nations study found that keeping Earth's temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius could save coral reefs from going extinct, keep massive ice sheet loss in Antarctica at bay and prevent many people's death and suffering.
Francis called the threshold "dead in the water."
Burgess called it extremely likely that Earth will overshoot the 1.5-degree threshold, but called the Paris Agreement "extraordinarily important international policy" that nations around the world should remain committed to.
Michael Mullenax, 10, from Lee's Summit, Mo., cools off聽June 24 in a mister at Kauffman Stadium before a baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and the Miami Marlins in Kansas City, Mo.
More warming likely
European and British calculations figure with a cooling La Nina instead of last year's warming El Nino, 2025 is likely to be not quite as hot as 2024. They predict it will turn out to be the third-warmest. However, the first six days of January 鈥 despite frigid temperatures in the U.S. East 鈥 averaged slightly warmer and are the hottest start to a year yet, according to Copernicus data.
Scientists remain split on whether global warming is accelerating.
There's not enough data to see an acceleration in atmospheric warming, but the heat content of the oceans seem to be not just rising but going up at a faster rate, said Carlo Buontempo, Copernicus' director.
"We are facing a very new climate and new challenges 鈥 climate challenges that our society is not prepared for," Buontempo said.
This is all like watching the end of "a dystopian sci-fi film," said University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann. "We are now reaping what we've sown."
How forecasts of bad weather can drive up your grocery bill
How forecasts of bad weather can drive up your grocery bill
It's no secret that a warming world will drive food prices higher, a phenomenon increasingly known as "." What's less known, but a growing area of interest among economists and scientists alike, is the role individual extreme weather events 鈥 , 鈥 may have on what U.S. consumers pay at the supermarket.
At first glance, the answer might seem logical: A drought or flood that impacts agricultural production will, eventually, drive up prices. But it's not that simple, because what consumers pay for groceries isn't only reflective of crop yields or herd sizes, but the whole supply chain. As reports, that's where it gets interesting: Economists are beginning to see a growing trend that suggests weather forecasts play a part in sticker shock. Sometimes the mere prediction of an extreme event 鈥 like the record-breaking temperatures, hurricanes, and wildfires forecasters are 鈥 can prompt a spike in prices.听
It isn't the forecast itself to blame, but concerns about what the weather to come might mean for the entire supply chain, as food manufacturers manage their risks and the expected future value of their goods, said Seungki Lee, an agricultural economist at Ohio State University.听
"When it comes to the climate risk on food prices, people typically look at the production side. But over the last two years, we learned that extreme weather can raise food prices, [cause] transportation disruptions, as well as production disruptions," said Lee.
How much we pay for the food we buy is determined by retailers, who consider the producer's price, labor costs, and other factors. Any increases in what producers charge is typically passed on to consumers because grocery stores operate on thin profit margins. And if manufacturers expect to pay more for commodities like beef or specialty crops like avocados in the future, they may boost prices now to cover those anticipated increases.
"The whole discussion about the climate risks on the food supply chain is based on probabilities," Lee said. "It is possible that we do not see extreme temperatures this summer, or even later this year. We may realize there was no significant weather shock hitting the supply chain, but unfortunately that will not be the end of the story."
Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages are among the reasons food prices have climbed . Climate change may be contributing as well. found "" could push them up by as much as 3 percentage points per year worldwide in just over a decade and by about 2 percentage points in North America. Simultaneous disasters in major crop and cattle producing regions around the world 鈥 known as 鈥 are among the primary forces driving these costs. Crop shortages in these regions may also squeeze prices, which can create volatility in the global market and bump up consumer costs.
Historically, a single, localized heat wave or storm typically wouldn't disrupt the supply chain enough to prompt price hikes. But a warming world might be changing that dynamic as extreme weather events intensify and simultaneous occurrences of them become the norm. How much this adds to consumers' grocery bills will vary, and depends upon whether these climate-fueled disasters hit what Lee calls "supply chain chokepoints" like during harvest seasons.
"As the weather is getting more and more volatile because of climate change, we are seeing this issue more frequently," he said. "So what that means is the supply chain is getting more likely to be jeopardized by these types of risks that we have never seen before."
Lower water levels slow down barges on the Mississippi River
An ongoing from the fall of 2022 until February provides an excellent example of this. The Mississippi River basin, which covers states, is a linchpin of America's agricultural supply chain. It produces , and most of the country's livestock. Vessels navigating its of channels carry .听
Transportation barriers created by low water, seen above, hampered the ability of crop-producing states in the to send commodities like corn and soybeans, primarily used for cattle feed, to livestock producers in the South. Thus emerged a as shipping and commodity prices , with economists .听
suggests that the drought probably contributed to last year 鈥 and because droughts have a lingering impact on production even after they end, it may be fueling today.听聽
But although it seems clear that the drought contributed to higher prices, products, just how much remains to be gauged. One reason for that is a analyzing the relationship between this particular weather event and the consumer market. Another is it's often difficult to tease out which of several possible factors, including , influence specific examples of sticker shock.听聽
While droughts definitely prompt decreases in agricultural production, Metin 脟ak谋r, an economist at the University of Minnesota, says whether that is felt by consumers depends on myriad factors. "This would mean higher raw ingredient costs for foods sold in groceries, and part of those higher costs will be passed onto consumers via higher prices. However, will consumer prices actually increase? The answer depends on many other supply and demand factors that might be happening at the same time as the impact of the drought," said 脟ak谋r.听
In a forthcoming analysis previewed by Grist, 脟ak谋r examined the relationship between an enduring drought in California, which produces , and costs of produce purchased at large grocery retailers nationwide. While the event raised consumer vegetable prices to a statistically significant degree, they didn't increase as much as 脟ak谋r expected.听
This capricious consumer cost effect is due largely to the . Public safety nets like have played a large part in mitigating the impacts of adverse weather and bolstering the food supply chain against and other shocks. By ensuring farmers and producers don't bear the brunt of those losses, these programs reduce the costs passed on to consumers. Advanced agricultural technology, modern infrastructure, substantial storage, and efficient transport links also help ensure retail price stability.听
A 2024 of the role climate change played on the U.S. wheat market from 1950 to 2018 found that although the impact of weather shocks on price variability has increased with the frequency of extreme weather, adaptive mechanisms, like a well-developed production and distribution infrastructure with sufficient storage capacity, have minimized the impact on consumers. Still, the paper warns that such systems may collapse when faced with "unprecedented levels of weather variability."聽
Last year was the , creating an onslaught of challenges for and producers nationwide. And this year is primed to be even more , with the transition from 鈥 an atmospheric phenomenon that warms ocean temperatures 鈥 to , its counterpart that cools them. This cyclical change in global weather patterns is another and source of supply chain pressures that economists and scientists are keeping an eye on.听
They will be particularly focused on the Midwest and stretches of the Corn Belt, two regions prone to drought as an El Ni帽o cycle gives way to a La Ni帽a, according to Weston Anderson, an assistant research scientist at the University of Maryland and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Those growing regions for corn and soybeans are what he'll be watching closely as La Ni帽a develops.听
It's something Jennifer Ifft, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, is also thinking about. "If you have a very severe drought in the Corn Belt 鈥 that's going to be the biggest deal, because that's gonna raise the cost of production for cattle, hogs, poultry," said Ifft. "So that would probably have the largest inflationary impacts."
As of , U.S. beef herd inventory was at its lowest in 73 years, which multiple reports noted is due to the persisting . Americans, the are already spending more on groceries than last year, are poised to soon see at the supermarket. Food prices are also expected to rise another , according to the USDA's Economic Research Service.听聽
In a world enmeshed in extremes, our could be the next system teetering on the edge of collapse because of human-caused climate change. And costlier groceries linked to impending risk is the first of many warning signs that it is already splintering.
was produced by and reviewed and distributed by Stacker Media.
